Therefore, no matter from the news or funds, the performance of the A-share market will not be too bad in the next period, especially during the two meetings!To understand this problem, we need to know the reasons for the divergence between the two indexes today, so as to judge the market trend in the later period.In Saturday's article and this morning's [A-share news], Jun Ge clearly pointed out that the main force to make A-shares last Friday was the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF, and it was the national team hidden behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF! The reason why the national team chose to enter the arena last Friday is that Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party has great benefits; The second is to maintain stability and prevent the A-share market from falling sharply during the meeting.
This past weekend, Xinhua News Agency issued three articles focusing on the analysis of monetary policy, fiscal policy and the future direction of real estate policy. As one of the most important official media, Xinhua News Agency published a large number of similar articles on the eve of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and the Central Economic Work Conference, which had to make people think more!In Jun Ge's view, today's market and GEM index failed to continue the trend of last Friday, and the GEM index performed worse, which is closely related to the latest changes in news and funds.Once the domestic economic recovery falls short of expectations in the fourth quarter of this year, the top management will continue to increase all kinds of economic stabilization policies to ensure the smooth operation of the domestic economy in the first quarter of next year! In fact, this point can also be found in the Xinhua News Agency article. When it comes to fiscal policy, the Xinhua News Agency article shows that there is still more room for borrowing in China at present; When it comes to monetary policy, the Xinhua News Agency article shows that the counter-cyclical mediation of monetary policy will continue to increase in the future!
It is worth noting that this meeting not only released the above two reassurances, but also focused on stabilizing the property market and the stock market. The operating environment of the A-share market next year will probably not be bad.However, today's news is not calm. The Bureau of Statistics released China's CPI and PPI data in November, which will have a lasting impact on the real economy, high-level governance and the A-share market! It is also the main reason why today's A-share market did not continue the strong pattern of last Friday.During this period, many investors are worried that the economic growth rate is less than expected, and that the economic recovery is too fast, and the future policy support will decline. This mentality of being swayed by considerations of gain and loss is the main obstacle that causes the A-share market to hesitate. This Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party meeting is the first time in 14 years that a "moderately loose" monetary policy has been set again, which is equivalent to removing a big stone in the hearts of bulls!
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide 12-13